Anti-epidemic economic operations stabilize and promote the development of industry resilience
In early 2020, the sudden arrival of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the normal operation of China's economy and society has a significant impact, but also on the development of the machinery industry brought unprecedented impact. Since March, in the Party Central Committee, the State Council to coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development work under the deployment of government departments to introduce timely tax cuts, help enterprises to support enterprises, stabilize employment and other policy measures, machinery industry enterprises to actively combat the epidemic, to speed up the resumption of work and production. Especially after entering the second quarter, production and operation order basically returned to normal, the industry's economic operation indicators significantly stabilized.
Outlook for the second half of the year, with the gradual release of macroeconomic policy effects, the machinery industry demand market will continue to recover, the operating environment continues to improve. However, due to the overseas epidemic is still a greater instability and uncertainty, the international economic and trade situation is becoming more severe and complex, the machinery industry is still facing greater downward pressure.
First, the first half of the machinery industry operating profile
Affected by the epidemic, the beginning of the mechanical industry production and operation suffered a huge impact, 1-2 months, the main economic indicators across the board decline, March began to stabilize, into the second quarter, the trend of stabilization and improvement is more clear.
(A) the value added drop significantly narrowed
National Bureau of Statistics data show that the value added of the machinery industry in the first half of the year fell 1.5%, significantly narrower than the first quarter of 17.5 percentage points, lower than the same period of the national industry and manufacturing industry 0.2, 0.1 percentage points. June month, the value added of the machinery industry grew 9% year-on-year, higher than the same period of the national industry and manufacturing industry 4.2 and 3.9 percentage points.
The first half of the machinery industry mainly involved in the five national economy industry categories, special equipment manufacturing value added has achieved positive growth, up 2.9%; general equipment manufacturing, automotive manufacturing, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and instrumentation manufacturing value added fell 2.3%, 3.1%, 0.3% and 0.7%, the rate of decline than in the first quarter narrowed 14.9, 22.9 12.6 and 15.4 percentage points.
(2) The production of major products gradually recovered
At the beginning of the year by the epidemic caused by the delayed resumption of work, the machinery industry to monitor the key production of 120 major products fell sharply, only 2 products in January-February to achieve growth in production. Since then, with the resumption of work and production continued to promote the gradual recovery of enterprise production, key monitoring products to achieve production growth in the number of products has been increasing. In the first half of the year, there are 36 kinds of products production growth, accounting for 30%; production decline in the product still has 84 kinds, accounting for 70%. From the data of the month, 4, 5, 6 for three consecutive months, the monthly output growth of more than 75 kinds of products.
The overall market situation of the main products of the machinery industry: the market for investment products recovered a little faster than expected! Consumer products market recovery than expected to be slower than expected. Specifically: First, thanks to infrastructure investment and energy construction-related projects to resume and start, construction machinery, power generation equipment production and sales growth faster. Excavators, loaders, compaction machinery and concrete machinery and other construction machinery products such as production growth in the first half of the year, excavators and concrete machinery production growth of more than 20%; Association of statistics in May, June excavator sales growth rate of more than 60%. Power generation equipment production in the first half of the year-on-year growth of 16.71%, including hydro generator sets and wind turbine production increased by 136.86% and 78.82%, gas turbines increased by 41.09%. Second, some agricultural machinery production faster recovery, the first half of large tractor production increased by 33.51%, medium-sized tractor production increased by 4.54% year-on-year, cotton processing machinery grew by 34.78%. Third, with the new infrastructure, people's livelihood infrastructure construction and intelligent manufacturing-related products production rebound, the first half of the production of optical fiber cable increased by 6.25%, solid waste treatment equipment production increased by 61.25%, industrial robots increased by 10.31%, industrial automatic control instruments and control systems increased by 0.64%. Fourth, automobile production and sales continue to stabilize, the Association statistics in the first half of the automobile production and sales were completed 10.112 million units and 10.257 million units, down 16.8% and 16.9% year-on-year, the rate of decline narrowed significantly from the beginning of the year. Fifth, the slow rebound in passenger cars, consumer products representative of the first half of passenger car production and sales fell 22.5% and 22.4%, respectively, by the slow rebound in the consumer market, passenger car production and sales growth rate compared with previous months, although narrowed significantly, but still did not reach the desired state.
(C) the main economic indicators significantly stabilized
Mechanical industry in the first half of the accumulated operating income of 9.55 trillion yuan, down 4.94%, continuing the trend of stabilization since March, the rate of decline narrowed 19.17 percentage points than in the first quarter; total profit of 552.52 billion yuan, down 7.09%, also continuing the trend of stabilization since March, the rate of decline narrowed significantly 49.49 percentage points than in the first quarter; operating Income profit margin of 5.79%. Compared with the national industry, the first half of the machinery industry operating income and total profits fell 0.23 and 5.76 percentage points narrower than the national industry, operating income profit margin of 0.35 percentage points higher.
(D) the main sub-industry recovery is still unbalanced
The first half of the machinery industry, non-automotive industry operating income fell 2.98% year-on-year, the decline was less than the overall level of the machinery industry during the same period, and narrowed by 16.91 percentage points compared with the first quarter; agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, robotics and intelligent manufacturing of four sub-sectors to achieve year-on-year growth in operating income. Non-automotive industry total profit has been down 39.98% from the first quarter to the first half of the growth of 2.11%, higher than the overall level of machinery industry 9.2 percentage points; including agricultural machinery, internal combustion engines, engineering machinery, instrumentation, heavy mining, machine tools, mechanical infrastructure, food packaging, robotics and intelligent manufacturing 9 sub-sectors to achieve total profit growth.
Automotive industry in the first half of the operating income fell 8.1% year-on-year, total profits fell 20.23%, both indicators fell significantly narrower than at the beginning of the year, but still lower than the overall level of machinery industry.
(E) foreign trade fell year-on-year
Customs data show that the total import and export of machinery industry in the first half of 344.2 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.84% year-on-year. Among them, imports of 138.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 8.54%; exports of 205.6 billion U.S. dollars, down 7.37%. Compared with the first quarter, total imports and exports narrowed by 1.99 percentage points, imports fell by 1.58 percentage points, exports narrowed by 4.44 percentage points. The machinery industry in the first half of the accumulated trade surplus of 67 billion U.S. dollars.
(F) the machinery industry boom index rebounded
The development of the machinery industry boom index covers production, investment, foreign trade, economic efficiency and other dimensions, a comprehensive reflection of the operation of the machinery industry. The first half of the mechanical industry boom index overall rebound trend, the bottom of the year after a rapid rebound in June has rebounded to 92.8, an increase of 14.97 points than the end of March. Reflecting the degree of prosperity of machinery industry operation continues to stabilize and improve.
Second, before the epidemic highlights the resilience of industry development
New crown pneumonia epidemic on the mechanical industry economic operation has brought unprecedented impact and challenges, the majority of enterprises to take the initiative, actively respond, buck the trend, showing the resilience of industry development.
(A) the epidemic prevention and control initiative as the rapid advancement of the resumption of work and production
In the face of the sudden epidemic, the majority of enterprises in the machinery industry actively engaged in the fight against the epidemic. On the one hand, they stepped up the manufacturing and research and development of negative pressure ambulances, masks and mask machines, ventilation and disinfection systems and other special products needed for the prevention and control of the epidemic, and met the demand and guaranteed the supply of anti-epidemic in a relatively short period of time. On the other hand, the fast and efficient organization and promotion of enterprises to resume work and production, China Machinery Industry Federation in conjunction with 18 sub-industry associations to establish more than 8,000 enterprises to resume work and production daily data show that the machinery industry enterprises to resume work rate of less than 30% in mid-February, to mid-March rose to nearly 90%, the beginning of April has exceeded 95%, the effective implementation of the central government on the coordination of the epidemic prevention and control and the resumption of production requirements, for the second quarter The foundation for the rebound of industry operation was laid.
(II) strategic emerging industries to drive the industry recovery
The first half of the machinery industry in the strategic new industry-related industries to achieve operating income of 7.11 trillion yuan, down 3.85% year-on-year, a decline of 1.09 percentage points narrower than the overall mechanical industry over the same period, the proportion of operating income in the machinery industry is 74.4%, an increase of 0.85 percentage points over the same period last year; to achieve a total profit of 406.668 billion yuan, down 4.63% year-on-year. The rate of decline narrowed by 2.46 percentage points compared with the overall machinery industry. Strategic emerging industries rebounded on the machinery industry operation stabilization played a positive role in driving.
(C) some industries to seize the opportunity to grow against the trend
In the face of the sudden outbreak of the epidemic, the relevant policies in the country's support, the machinery industry to take the initiative to speed up the resumption of production, some industries in the crisis to seize new opportunities to achieve counter-trend growth.
Agricultural machinery industry has continued to be at a low level in recent years, the beginning of this year was also affected by the huge impact of the new crown epidemic, but thanks to the timely introduction of national subsidies for the renewal of agricultural machinery scrapping, protective farming of black land in the northeast, the 2020 agricultural production development project